A new report has shed light on the early pay-per-view performance of AEW x NJPW Forbidden Door, and while official figures have yet to emerge, initial signs suggest the event may finish behind the company's other major shows this year.

In the latest edition of the Wrestling Observer Newsletter, Dave Meltzer stated that he has not received a final pay-per-view estimate. However, the preliminary numbers available indicate that Forbidden Door is on course to become AEW's lowest-selling pay-per-view of 2026 to date.

According to Meltzer:

“I don’t have a PPV estimate past some numbers that we have indicate the lowest of 2026, but this has also been a great year. The key distributor these days is HBO Max and we were told the numbers were comparable there to Dynasty, which did around 145,000 buys, so this would likely be a little bit lower since other distributors were down.”

Meltzer believes one of the biggest factors may have been the absence of an AEW World Championship match on the card. Instead of defending the title in a singles bout, AEW World Champion MJF competed inside the 12 man steel cage match, leading the Don Callis Family against Mark Briscoe's team.

He added:

“As far as a reason, my gut is the lack of an AEW world title match is the main culprit as MJF would have meant more in a singles match than in a 12-man match to build up a title match.”

Just days after Forbidden Door, MJF successfully defended the AEW World Championship against Mark Briscoe in the opening match of the July 1 edition of AEW Dynamite.

Meltzer also pointed to stiff competition on the night of the event. Forbidden Door aired opposite NXT Great American Bash and a Sunday Night Baseball matchup between the New York Yankees and Boston Red Sox. However, he noted that the show did avoid going head to head with a primetime FIFA World Cup fixture.